Prediction Markets Are Better Than News for Energy Bets

News Tells You What Happened. Prediction Markets Tell You What Will Happen.

Big difference for energy infrastructure investing.

By the time TechCrunch reports a regulatory change, the market has already priced it in. By the time the WSJ writes about grid capacity issues, smart money has already repositioned.

We built an intelligence agent that pulls from prediction markets instead.

The Sources We Aggregate

• Kalshi - CFTC-regulated, institutional grade, US-focused
• Polymarket - Crypto-based, high liquidity, global coverage
• Manifold - Community forecasts, niche coverage, long-tail events

What We Track

• Federal energy policy probability (will the IRA be modified?)
• Grid capacity expansion bets (when will ERCOT add 10GW?)
• Permitting approval odds (will the Mountain Valley Pipeline complete?)
• Regional infrastructure milestones (new datacenter announcements)
• Carbon pricing trajectories (will EU ETS hit €100?)

Why Prediction Markets Beat News

1. They Aggregate Thousands of Views, Weighted by Money

A prediction market isn't one analyst's opinion. It's hundreds or thousands of traders putting money on their beliefs. Wrong beliefs get punished. Right beliefs get rewarded.

2. They Price Events Weeks Before Headlines

Insiders, analysts, and experts trade on prediction markets. When they start moving on a position, it often precedes public news by weeks.

3. They Give You Probabilities, Not Just "Maybe"

News says "Ohio might block datacenter permits." A prediction market says "65% chance Ohio blocks new datacenter permit by Q2 2025." The second is actionable.

4. They're Continuously Updated

News is published once. Prediction markets update every second as new information arrives. You get real-time probability adjustments.

A Real Example

In late 2024, Polymarket showed rising odds of Ohio regulatory action against datacenters weeks before the Public Utilities Commission announced their decision. Traders who were watching the market could reposition before the headline hit.

By the time news outlets reported "Ohio Rules Against Tech Companies on Grid Costs," the information was already priced in.

How We Use This

Our prediction market intelligence agent:

1. Filters for relevance - only energy, infrastructure, and policy markets
2. Scores by liquidity - higher liquidity = more reliable signal
3. Tracks probability changes - sudden moves often signal new information
4. Cross-references with news - identifies when markets lead news
5. Alerts on threshold crossings - when probability crosses 50%, 70%, 90%

Limitations to Know

• Thin markets can be manipulated - we filter by minimum liquidity
• Not all events have prediction markets - coverage is growing but incomplete
• Resolution risk - how the market defines "success" matters

The Bottom Line

We're not replacing news. We're adding a probability layer on top.

For anyone making energy infrastructure bets: if you're only reading news, you're already behind.

GreenCIO's Intelligence Feed includes real-time prediction market signals alongside traditional news. Request a demo to see it in action.