Free interactive tool
Stress-test the 2-year payback thesis.
Model GPU refresh, revenue decay, and your cost of capital — the variables that turn a marketing number into the real one.
Assumptions
$50.00B
70% of CapEx
$27.50B
$1.50B
$1.50B
10.0% / yr
10.0%
Defaults are calibrated to a 1 GW frontier-AI build (~$50B CapEx, ~$27.5B revenue, $1.5B power). Adjust to fit your scenario.
Illustrative output. Payback figures depend entirely on inputs and assumptions. Not investment, financial, tax, or accounting advice. Consult qualified professionals before any commercial or investment decision.
Simple payback
1.82 yrs
CapEx ÷ revenue
Cash payback
2.19 yrs
After all OpEx + GPU refresh
Economic payback
2.67 yrs
Discounted at 10.0%
Break-even year-1 revenue (NPV = 0 over 10 yrs)
$21.34Brevenue can fall 22% before NPV goes negative
Holds your decay profile, cost structure, GPU refresh schedule, and 10.0% discount rate constant.
Cumulative cash flow
Crosses zero at paybackFinancials
Year 1 EBITDA
$24.50B
Year 1 FCF
$24.50B
NPV (10y)
$26.68B
IRR
25.5%
GPU refresh CapEx
$35.00B
Revenue (horizon)
$179.11B
Stress this build with desk signals
Layer permit, grid, and financing probabilities onto payback — and run bear / base / bull with specialist agents.